Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives
készítő: DeepValues
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Guy Spier Made Zero Trades in Q3 With 49% in Berkshire | Investor…
Guy Spier Made Zero Trades in Q3 With 49% in Berkshire | Investor…
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Buffett-style value investing, one company at a time: intrinsic value, margin of safety, moats, balance-sheet risk, with a clear Bullish, Neutral or Bearish stance. From DeepValues, the app that gives ordinary investors the capability of a research team: Buffett-method intrinsic value for any stock, annual reports deconstructed to the footnotes, the super investors' 13F moves, alerts when the Buffett Indicator, Shiller PE or VIX change zone. Search DeepValues in the App Store or Google Play. Research: research.deepvalues.ai. Video: YouTube @TheDeepValues. 中文版：深度價值. Not investment advice.
Epizódok
A legújabb 50 a(z) 605 epizódból
- Guy Spier Made Zero Trades in Q3 With 49% in Berkshire | Investor Playbook · 20 percGuy Spier's Q3 2026 13F shows not a single buy or sell across seven stocks worth $144.3M, with 49% in Berkshire Hathaway. Learn why deliberate inaction is one of the hardest…
- Anthropic (ANT) — Bearish? Anthropic's $1.4T IPO: 1,206% Growth, No Margin of Safety · 22 percBearish on Anthropic (ANT) as of 2026-11-13: $1.4T Fully diluted. Anthropic's S-1 shows $33.2B in nine-month revenue, about 900% net retention and $900.9B in compute commitments…
- Eisman's $850B AI Bubble: 65% of the S&P 500 Exposed · 18 percSteve Eisman shows how an $850 billion AI buildout now ties over 65% of the S&P 500 to two private companies, OpenAI and Anthropic. We test the hyperscalers' moats, free cash…
- Baillie Gifford Made $29.5B on Tesla. Is It Overpaying Now? | Investor Playbook · 20 percBaillie Gifford turned one early Tesla bet into a $29.5 billion gain, and today 45% of its $105.9 billion US portfolio sits in just ten names. We run those growth bets through…
- Data Centers Lost 40 of 41 Votes. Why Microsoft Rose | Investor Playbook · 19 percVoters backed limits on data centers in 40 of 41 local ballot measures, and Texas, home to 25% of planned U.S. capacity, may freeze approvals. Learn why local permission is…
- NVIDIA (NVDA) — Nvidia's CEO and the Intelligence Leak Aimed at a $2T Moat · 17 percDeep value research on NVIDIA (NVDA) as of 2026-11-13: $2T Value in the. We trace how a U.S. intelligence leak tying Jensen Huang to an alleged Chinese state-security recruit…
- Nvidia vs Microsoft: The Math of the $1.8T AI Meltdown | Stock Market · 20 percDamodaran's cash-flow map shows why the AI suppliers generating the most cash lost the most when $1.8 trillion vanished in a single day. Now that the AI trade is splitting into…
- Nvidia, Moutai, Micron: Duan on Why a 3x PE Can Be a Trap | Value Investing · 18 percDuan Yongping's November 7 notes on Nvidia, Moutai and Micron reveal one framework: true moats leave a footprint in sustained gross margins, while cheap cyclicals hide a…
- Amazon's $215B AI Bet vs Apple's $9B: Who Earns It Back? | Stock Market · 20 percWe run the real numbers: Amazon's $215B in CapEx pushed its free cash flow to -$47B, while Apple kept $136B. Then we show why Alphabet's ~$200B build-out needs about $100B in new…
- Pabrai Put 60% in Turkey While Skipping the US AI Trade | Investor Playbook · 21 percMohnish Pabrai has more than 60% of his $1.5B portfolio in Turkey and nothing in the US AI trade. We unpack the Graham-style math behind that split, and why he sees a flat decade…
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — Neutral? Berkshire Q3 2026: $22.1B Profit, Only $12.7B Is Real · 16 percNeutral on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) as of 2026-11-07: $9.4B paper gains stripped. Berkshire's $22.1 billion Q3 profit includes $9.4 billion of paper gains, so owner earnings…
- Yacktman at 84: $118.5M Sold, Only 1.5% Turnover | Investor Playbook · 12 percDonald Yacktman, 84, sold a net $118.5 million in Q3 but changed only 1.5% of his $8.38 billion portfolio. We look at which of his 75 holdings moved and what his habit of doing…
- Steven Check Dumps $46.8M of Disney for Zoetis | Investor Playbook · 13 percSteven Check sold all $46.8 million of his Disney stake at a -80.9% margin of safety and opened a Zoetis position at +14.2%. The Q3 filing just landed, and we walk through the…
- Jack Bogle: From 12% Returns to a 4% Decade | Stock Market · 21 percJack Bogle's two-part return formula, tested over 25 years with a 0.81 correlation, points to about 4% a year for the next decade. After a 12% bull run that hid costly fund…
- S&P 500 Up 11% While Its Average Stock Fell 27% · 10 percThe S&P 500 is up 11% this year, yet its average member suffered a 27% drawdown, and Nasdaq members nearly 49%. Learn why cap-weighted indexes now hide rolling bear markets, and…
- Microsoft (MSFT) — Microsoft Drops Oracle Cloud: The $80B Rent Problem · 18 percDeep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-10: $80B+ outside cloud. Microsoft is winding down its Oracle cloud deal and backing away from over $80 billion in rented AI…
- Apple and Pop Mart: Why Duan Sold Calls, Not Shares | Investor Playbook · 21 percDuan Yongping sold Apple calls without selling a single share, and paused his open-market buying of Pop Mart. See how a value investor acts when a great business gets pricey and…
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — AMD's $13.4B Quarter: Why Owners Kept Only $31M · 19 percDeep value research on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as of 2026-11-05: $31M true owner earnings. AMD booked $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, but after a $3 billion inventory build and…
- AppLovin (APP) — Neutral? AppLovin's 66% Margin: Real Profit or Accounting Trick? · 22 percNeutral on AppLovin (APP) as of 2026-11-05: 66% net income margin. AppLovin turned $2.18B of quarterly revenue into a 66% net margin, and we strip out stock pay and net-revenue…
- McDonald's (MCD) — McDonald's $3.8B Rent Machine vs. Slipping US Sales · 22 percDeep value research on McDonald's (MCD) as of 2026-11-05: $3.8B franchise margins up. McDonald's makes most of its money as a landlord, and franchised margins rose 3% to $3.8…
- OpenAI Sought $30B, Found $11B: Anthropic Pulls Ahead | Stock Market · 22 percOpenAI's push to raise $30 billion has only about $11 billion credibly committed so far, while Anthropic beat it on Q2 revenue and turned an operating profit. We run both…
- Lennar: Why a 19%-a-Year Investor Made It His Big Bet · 18 percEdgar Wachenheim compounded about 19% a year for nearly three decades, and his Q3 2026 13F lists Lennar first. We unpack the margin-of-safety math behind the position and why a…
- Chamath's AI Stack: Who Gets Paid From $700B Capex? | Stock Market · 24 percHyperscalers are estimated to pour over $700 billion into AI capex in 2026, yet owning a bottleneck does not guarantee owner earnings. We run Chamath's six-layer AI stack, from…
- Iron Mountain (IREN) — Neutral? IREN's $9.7B Microsoft Deal: Delay or Thesis Break? · 23 percNeutral on Iron Mountain (IREN) as of 2026-11-09: $9.7B Microsoft contract. Microsoft's $4.8B capex shortfall, blamed on delayed third-party capacity, set off a panic in IREN…
- AI Wants 1 Gigawatt Per Building. The Grid Can't Deliver | Stock Market · 25 percA single AI data center can draw as much power as San Francisco, and the grid can't carry it, so builders are putting power plants on site. We unpack the physics and the…
- Alphabet (GOOG) — Neutral? Alphabet's $200B AI Moat vs. Its Free Cash Flow · 20 percNeutral on Alphabet (GOOG) as of 2026-11-08: $200B Yearly AI build-out. Gemini 4 Carbon retook AI's #1 spot and Google Cloud revenue grew 103%, but the spending behind both is…
- Turbopuffer: $100M ARR With 50 People While AI Burns Cash · 22 percTurbopuffer reached $100M in ARR with about 50 people by cutting customers' search costs 95% and growing on customer cash instead of mega-rounds. In a 2026 market minting more…
- McDonald's (MCD) — McDonald's Priced for 9.5% Growth Forever. Comps Grew 1.5% · 20 percDeep value research on McDonald's (MCD) as of 2026-11-04: 9.5% Implied perpetual. McDonald's owns the land under its restaurants, yet U.S. traffic is softening while its price…
- Dan Bin Cuts AMD 64%, Bets $91M on Apple | Investor Playbook · 19 percDan Bin, China's best-known Buffett disciple, cut AMD by 64% and opened a $91M Apple stake in Q3 2026. We test whether his $1.47B, AI-heavy US portfolio still leaves any margin…
- Tweedy Browne's Q3 13F: Why 45% Sits in Just 10 Stocks | Investor Playbook · 19 percTweedy Browne's new Q3 2026 13F puts 45% of the portfolio in just ten holdings. Learn the five-point Graham checklist behind those picks, used since the firm started in 1920 as…
- United Airlines (UAL) — United Airlines' $80B Plane Bet With No Passengers in Sight · 23 percDeep value research on United Airlines (UAL) as of 2026-11-05: $80B list-price plane order. With revenue near zero in 2020, Scott Kirby placed the largest aircraft order in…
- Musk: Saving Is Pointless. 72 Hours Later, Grok Bleeds Cash | Stock Market · 21 percMusk called saving pointless, then admitted 72 hours later that serving Grok cost too much. See why $38 billion data centers make cash flow and moats the real test of the AI…
- Utilities vs Nvidia: Why $5B of AI Chips Can Sit Unplugged | Stock Market · 21 percSee why AI's bottleneck moved from chips to power, land and grid access. With 438 GW of requests queued in Texas alone, who owns those scarce assets matters more than who buys…
- Don't Live to 93: The Asset 90-Year-Olds Say You Misprice | Value Investing · 22 percWhy a 97-year-old says he would rot without a task, and what people past 90 regret overpaying for. Time is the one asset you can't buy back, and you are pricing it today…
- Apple (AAPL) — Bearish? Apple's 12.6% Problem: Why Money Is Moving to Google and PDD · 21 percBearish on Apple (AAPL) as of 2026-11-04: 12.6% yearly profit growth. See why a legendary value investor is trimming Apple to fund Google and PDD, and how to test any great…
- Anthropic's $80B Six-Month Loss vs Google's $500B Wipeout | Stock Market · 18 percSee how Graham and Buffett would judge Anthropic's $80 billion six-month loss and Google's $500 billion wipeout. With Anthropic's S-1 filing out and AI spending soaring, the…
- Benner Cycle Says Sell in 2026: Is 1875 Pig-Iron Math Right? | Stock Market · 22 percThe viral 1875 chart marks 2026 as a sell year, yet its sell dates are just a repeating 9-10-8 year loop. See what its record really shows, and why price versus value matters…
- Intel (INTC) — Bearish? Intel at $95, Base Value $20? SanDisk Has No Safety Margin · 23 percBearish on Intel (INTC) as of 2026-11-20: -372% Intel margin of safety. Intel trades at $95.53, but our base intrinsic value estimate is $20.24. That gap means the market price…
- Roblox (RBLX) — Neutral? Roblox's $1.35B Free Cash Flow Illusion: 83% Goes to SBC · 20 percNeutral on Roblox (RBLX) as of 2026-11-19: 83% FCF lost to SBC. Roblox reported $1.35B of free cash flow in FY2025 and a $1.07B GAAP net loss in the same year. Subtract the…
- Amazon (company) (AMZN) — Neutral? Amazon Worth $25 or $200? The $220B Capex Paradox · 21 percNeutral on Amazon (company) (AMZN) as of 2026-11-18: -$42.4B TTM free cash flow. Amazon brought in $168.3B of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, yet reported free cash…
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — Neutral? Alphabet Made $42B in Cash and Still Burned $9.1B · 19 percNeutral on Alphabet (GOOGL) as of 2026-11-17: -$9.1B Q3 free cash flow. Alphabet generated $42.3B of operating cash in Q3 2026, spent $51.4B on AI capex, stopped buybacks and…
- Microsoft (MSFT) — Neutral? Microsoft's AI Capex Just Cut Free Cash Flow 70% · 23 percNeutral on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-16: -70% FCF collapse. Microsoft spent 49% of its quarterly revenue on AI data centers, and free cash flow fell 70%. We work out its…
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — Neutral? Alphabet's $205B Bet Turns Google Into an AI Utility · 22 percNeutral on Alphabet (GOOGL) as of 2026-11-15: $205B FY2026 capex. Google Cloud is growing 81.8% a year, but a $205B capex program pushed Alphabet's Q2 free cash flow below zero…
- Anthropic IPO: $1.48T Value vs a $2T Price Tag · 19 percWe take apart Anthropic's 416-page IPO prospectus with Damodaran's valuation: revenue up 1,400%, but $473B in compute commitments that work like debt, a BB+ rating and a…
- Fed Pauses at 4%, But Two Governors Wanted More Hikes · 21 percThe Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, but two governors dissented and voted for another hike, and Chair Warsh says conditions still aren't tight. Here is what that 10-2 split means…
- Anthropic's $2T IPO Red Flags, and Where AV Value Hides | Stock Market · 24 percWe read Anthropic's S-1 with a Graham-Dodd lens: a 3,300% headline growth rate, a growth slowdown in Q3, more than $800B in compute commitments and a single share that gives…
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Bearish? Robinhood Made $2.25B in Cash. Why Is It Still Overvalued? · 24 percBearish on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) as of 2026-11-11: -28% Margin of safety. We audit Robinhood's Q3 2026 numbers: $2.25B in free cash flow, a 46% operating margin, zero debt…
- Anthropic S-1: 85% Margins, $600B in Commitments · 24 percWe run Anthropic's leaked S-1 numbers through a Graham-Dodd lens: 85% inference margins, $100B+ in cash and $500-600B in compute commitments. Then we look at what a…
- Alibaba's 7x Growth Target Had a Hidden Human Cost | Money & Retirement · 15 percA former Alibaba executive was told to multiply her forecast by seven, and her team hit it. Learn what that hyper-growth era cost her health and her family, and why value…
- PayPal (PYPL) — Bullish? PayPal at 9.3x Earnings: Value Trap or Cash Machine? · 17 percBullish on PayPal (PYPL) as of 2026-11-08: $6.58B Free cash flow TTM. We put PayPal's $6.58B in free cash flow, its 31% share retirement and three DCF scenarios side by side to…
