Macro & Volatility™
by Josh Silva and Michael Purves
Latest episode
Macro & Volatility™ #34: The Market is Impatient, but Time is on Our…
Macro & Volatility™ #34: The Market is Impatient, but Time is on Our…
About this podcast
Josh Silva of Passaic Partners and Michael Purves of Tallbacken Capital discuss the world of investing through the lens of cross-asset and derivative frameworks.
The information, opinions and views expressed on this podcast are for informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. The opinions expressed may not align with Passaic Partners' views or its client strategies. Market forecasts are speculative and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Consult your financial and tax advisors before making any investments.
Episodes
The newest 20 of 35 episodes
- Macro & Volatility™ #34: The Market is Impatient, but Time is on Our Side with AI · 27 min · Episode 34• Real similarities and differences between today and the late 90s • Low correlation on the way up will likely mean low correlation on the way down, at least initially • Fixed…
- Macro & Volatility™ #33: Goldilocks Earnings vs. the Three Bond Bears: ECB; BOJ; and the US Deficit · 20 min · Episode 33• Bond bears are winning globally, but deficits may be the real story • Geopolitics and oil are driving rates more than inflation fears • Earnings, not rates, are still the…
- Macro & Volatility™ #32: De-Grossing, Momentum Shifts, and the VIX: Not Coincidences · 21 min · Episode 32• This is a different type of de-leveraging • Higher equity correlation ≠ VIX explosion • Geopolitical and oil risks are for real
- Macro & Volatility™ #31: Why "Higher Everything" Makes Sense · 31 min · Episode 31• Equity rally is broad, earnings-driven, and still not stretched • Markets can tolerate higher rates until speed becomes the risk • AI capex is creating a sustained, structural…
- Macro & Volatility™ #30: Operation Epic Earnings · 26 min · Episode 30• Equity rally is fundamentally earnings-driven, not war “denial” • Excessive hedging mispriced the upside • Bonds are selling off because inflation is shifting from short-term…
- Macro & Volatility™ #29: Foolin' · 24 min · Episode 29• Convexity conundrum: diversifying assets didn’t work • Commodities are not tariffs and cannot be altered at the stroke of a pen • Tape bombs are having diminishing impact
- Macro & Volatility™ #28: How has Operation Epic Fury affected the fear indices? · 21 min · Episode 28• More about rotation than direction • Bonds are still not protecting • Implied correlation / VIX is at a record low
- Macro & Volatility™ #27: Seismic Activity but No Real Fear · 20 min · Episode 27• Healthy correction in gold and silver • Higher nominal rates globally • Warsh’s impact on the MOVE and VIX
- Macro & Volatility™ #26: "Love Vigilantes" - New Order · 29 min · Episode 26• Ready, Shoot, Aim Fed • Misunderstanding of Oracle CDS • Welcome back to the ‘90s
- Macro & Volatility™ #25: Who’s Special in a K-shaped Economy? · 24 min · Episode 25• Long Vol and long Delta • Paid to be long Correlation • Buy Everything!
- Macro & Volatility™ #24: Certain things are true... for now! · 19 min · Episode 24• Risk-on sentiment is reinforced by accelerated global earnings • Markets go up... volatility goes up • The Magnificents’ P/E-to-expected growth is favorable — not true for the…
- Macro & Volatility™ #23: Bonds are Losing their Diversification Benefits · 20 min · Episode 23• Surprise — no surprises • Front end is clear • Back end is lost
- Macro & Volatility™ #22: Tempered Cross-Asset Volatility · 17 min · Episode 22• US Dollar allergy & US Treasury curve illness • Tipping point for US Dollar weakness • Risk appetite still going strong!
- Macro & Volatility™ #21: Re-shoring, Re-industrialization, De-globalization · 24 min · Episode 21The winners, the losers, and the in-betweens • Old economy vs New economy CapEx • Trump has Made Europe Great Again (“MEGA”) • US De-globalization is leading to Global…
- Macro & Volatility™ #20: 4000s without a Recession · 11 min · Episode 20• Realized volatility did the heavy lifting • Trade (“Cold”) War discount • Pace of news flow will slow
- Macro & Volatility™ #19: Beyond Liberation Day · 9 min · Episode 19• What does Liberation Day mean for inflation? • Bonds and the Fed are pointing to growth contraction and moderate stagflation • Tail-hedging didn’t work • Trump Put is very…
- Macro & Volatility™ #18: Deconstructing the Bond Bid · 11 min · Episode 18• The bond market says ... • What's driving the yields? • The VIX continues to be higher for longer
- Macro & Volatility™ #17: Insight into the Tele-tech Frenzy of the 90s and How it Applies to AI Today · 16 min · Episode 17• CEO FOMO, 30 years later. • Using lessons from the past to understand risk today. • A key difference in valuations, then and now.
- Macro & Volatility™ #17: Insight into the Tele-tech Frenzy of the 90s & How it Applies Today · 16 minCEO FOMO, 30 years later; Using lessons from the past to understand risk today; A key difference in valuations, then and now
- Macro & Volatility™ #16: Trading the “Art of the Deal” · 13 min · Episode 16The US political risk premium. Market corrections could be violent. Upside may be limited by PE contraction; downside may be limited by two Trump puts.
