The Macro Compass
by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Latest episode
Run It Cold Now, Run It Hot Later
Run It Cold Now, Run It Hot Later
About this podcast
The 10.000 foot view of Global Macro and Financial Markets, such that you don't miss the forest for the trees.
themacrocompass.substack.com
Episodes
The newest 20 of 131 episodes
- Run It Cold Now, Run It Hot Later · 7 minHi everyone - this is Alf.I hope you’re having a great day. My macro models have been suggesting a bi-modal framework to approach markets for the near future: Run It Cold Now…
- May The Odds Be Ever In Your Favor · 19 minHi everyone - this is Alf. I hope you're having a great day. ‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money…
- Plumbing Risks Ahead · 6 minHi everyone - this is Alf. I hope you're having a great day. The US economy and markets might face a double negative whammy over the next 2 months: a large reduction of the…
- Policymaking Protest Assets (PPAs) · 5 minAmidst all the noise, markets haven’t had time to digest 5 key macro news: 1) Elon Musk announces formation of ‘’America Party’’ 2) Speaker Mike Johnson: "We're gonna have a…
- Null Komma Null · 7 minHi everyone - this is Alf.I hope you're having a great day. Alongside with running my hedge fund, I work as a consultant and external advisor for some of the largest pension…
- On The US Downgrade · 8 minHi everyone - this is Alf.I hope you're having a great day. On Friday, the credit agency Moody’s downgraded the US rating by one notch to Aa1 (equivalent to AA+). By now, you’ve…
- How The Whales Could Dump More US Dollars · 5 minHear, hear: the US Dollar is going down. Investors love to attach an ex-post narrative to any price action, and this time the blame was on Trump’s erratic policies, the reduced…
- The Macro Unicorn · 7 minHi everyone - this is Alf. I hope you're having a great day. ‘’There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’’ – Vladimir Lenin. Markets were…
- Here Are My Top Macro Ideas · 6 minHi everybody, Alf here - welcome back to The Macro Compass! Before we go into today’s piece, a short announcement. I advise several institutional investors on a bespoke…
- Bond Market Rally Next? · 5 minHi everyone, Alf here - welcome back to The Macro Compass! And now, to the piece. Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit…
- How To Prepare For Tariff Day · 7 minNext week will be crucial for markets as Trump is set to announce (or disappointingly not announce) tariffs. In this piece I will highlight the rationale behind my base case…
- What To Buy For A Macro Portfolio In 2025 · 8 minGood morning, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!I wish you a fantastic year ahead: follow your passions, keep learning, and don’t drink cappuccino after 11am. In…
- A Fresh Look At Bond Markets · 7 minLooking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring. Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the front-end, and to make money you…
- Macro Clouds On The Horizon · 7 minThe key macro event of 2024 is approaching: US elections are around the corner. Next week I will release a deep research piece on US elections, which will be centered around the…
- The Big Chinese Bazooka · 6 minThe Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard. Economists estimate Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result. There is now a strong…
- China Is Imploding · 6 minThe news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from…
- This is a True Regime Change · 8 minWe are observing a true regime change in markets.And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage. It all starts with…
- Panic Monday! (What Now?) · 5 minWe just witnessed one of the biggest market panic events ever seen in the last 4 decades. At some point, Asian markets were down 10%+ in a single session and the Japanese bank…
- Macro Volatility Is Coming · 9 minThe S&P500 realized volatility is below 10%.Credit spreads are super tight, and aside from some short-lived European political drama markets keep marching higher. Yet, I think…
- Why Doesn't The Economy Break?! · 6 minThe Fed hiked rates above 5%, and yet the US economy doesn't break. Back in 2022 already, the yield curve inverted and it has stayed inverted ever since.The lags looked…
