Can ChatGPT Predict the Future?

This episode explores the forecasting capabilities of OpenAI's ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4, focusing on a comparative analysis between direct prediction prompts and narrative-based prompts (termed "future narratives"). The core investigation leverages the known training data cutoff of these models (initially September 2021) to evaluate their ability to predict events that occurred in 2022. A later "falsification exercise" in the second paper re-ran experiments with updated training data.
Narrative Prompting Enhances Forecasting Accuracy
A central finding across both sources is that prompting…