RenMac
af Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........
This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.
This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.
Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.
Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive.
Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
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- RenMac Off-Script: Neocloudy With a Chance of Defaults* · 1 t. 5 min.RenMac breaks down the accelerating selloff in semiconductors, why Jeff sees signs of forced liquidation but isn't convinced the market has reached a durable bottom, and how…
- RenMac Off-Script: Mag Seven, Meet the Other 493 · 49 min.RenMac breaks down the sharp reversal in AI stocks, why the Mag Seven are losing their grip on market leadership, and how 777 advancing stocks in the Russell 1000 signal a…
- RenMac Off-Script: Shoot First, Buy Later · 47 min.RenMac breaks down why Thursday's tech wipeout looks like forced liquidation rather than a bottom, with semis and hardware stuck at 20-day lows, shorts covered but not yet…
- RenMac Off-Script: Higher for Longer, Wronger for Longer? · 41 min.RenMac breaks down another round of troubling inflation data and why the Fed’s reluctance to hike in October likely cements action in December. The team examines why improving…
- RenMac Off-Script: AI's Reality Check* · 1 t. 1 min.Ramp's Ara Kharazian joins RenMac to unpack what actual corporate spending data reveals about the AI boom, including why 1% of companies account for 80% of enterprise AI spending…
- RenMac Off-Script: Beneath the Bull · 38 min.RenMac breaks down a softer payroll report that reins in Fed hike expectations even as inflation remains the bigger hurdle for policymakers. The team discusses why higher real…
- RenMac Off-Script: Hawk and Awe · 43 min.RenMac breaks down the breakout in long-end Treasury yields, why tighter monetary policy rather than fiscal concerns may be driving the move, and how higher real rates are…
- RenMac Off-Script: There Is An Alternative · 37 min.RenMac breaks down the Fed’s unanimous rate hike, why Kevin Warsh’s first move suggests the tightening cycle may have further to run, and what increasingly restrictive real rates…
- RenMac Off-Script: The Great Separation · 43 min.RenMac breaks down stubborn inflation and why the Fed may be forced to hike as higher real yields reshape markets beneath the surface. The team discusses weakening momentum and…
- RenMac Off-Script: Hormuz, Hyperscalers & the Market* · 49 min.Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen rejoins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, why oil prices have remained…
- RenMac Off-Script: Fed Swallows Whistle · 51 min.RenMac is joined this week by Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist and co-host of The Market Huddle podcast to discuss why the Fed has run out of room to move before the…
- RenMac Off-Script: Breaking Glass · 50 min.RenMac breaks down Treasury's move to double its long-end liquidity support ops to $4 billion, its turn from plumbing to arguing yields don't reflect fundamentals and how…
- RenMac Off-Script: Total Eclipse of the Hike · 46 min.RenMac breaks down a July inflation picture that isn't cooperating (softer CPI, firmer PPI, and core PCE annualizing near 2.5%), and why the bond market is under-pricing the risk…
- RenMac Off-Script: Forecasts > Feelings* · 1 t. 1 min.Former CEA Chair and Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Steve Miran joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss why he sees potential growth running closer to 3% than 2% —…
- RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Case Scenario · 41 min.Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's…
- RenMac Off-Script: The First Crack · 46 min.RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push…
- RenMac Off-Script: Memorandum of Misunderstanding · 41 min.RenMac breaks down the vicious unwind in the momentum trade, why a low headline VIX is masking the highest single-stock dispersion the team has ever measured, and how a cooler…
- RenMac Off-Script: Redistributing the Oxygen* · 58 min.Big Technology podcast host Alex Kantrowitz joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss whether the AI buildout has quietly become the load-bearing pillar of the U.S. economy and…
- RenMac Off-Script: State of the Fed Disunion · 39 min.RenMac is joined by banking and payments veteran Howard Mason and digs into a soft payroll report, Chair Warsh's price-stability regime shift, and firming real rates. The team…
- RenMac Off-Script: Flying Blind · 38 min.RenMac breaks down a hawkish shift from the Fed and why higher real yields are reshaping market leadership beneath the surface. The team discusses Treasury Secretary Scott…
- RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Lets the Hawks Fly · 37 min.RenMac breaks down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting — the most hawkish FOMC outcome on record by the move in the two-year yield — why falling oil won't pull the Fed off…
- RenMac Off-Script: Rocket Man · 49 min.RenMac breaks down the SpaceX IPO frenzy, why history suggests caution around the most anticipated market debuts, and how stronger inflation and labor data are shifting the Fed…
- RenMac Off-Script: Small Ball · 32 min.RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team…
- RenMac Off-Script: Shoot ‘em in the Back · 41 min.RenMac discusses the equity markets at all-time highs as signs of late-cycle stress accumulate beneath the surface and capital chases the parabola in tech. The team breaks down…
- RenMac Off-Script: Seeking Crypto Clarity · 51 min.Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset manager Grayscale Investments, joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the Clarity Act's path through Congress and how…
- RenMac Off-Script: Around the World with Ozan · 50 min.RenMac welcomes Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Global Macro Ozan Tarman for a deep dive on rising yields, “warflation,” and whether the bond vigilantes are back. The team debates…
- RenMac Off-Script: Fine… For Now · 34 min.RenMac breaks down a labor market that remains stable but uneven, with AI and data center investment continuing to drive hiring, manufacturing, and market leadership while…
- RenMac Off-Script: RenMac’s Breadth Problem · 41 min.RenMac breaks down a powerful market rally masking weak breadth and narrow leadership concentrated in AI, semis, and energy. The team explores a soft underlying growth backdrop…
- RenMac Off-Script: Burden Is On The Bears · 41 min.RenMac unpacks rising risks in the $2.1T private credit market, where opacity, refinancing pressure, and potential redemption “gates” could tighten financial conditions beneath…
- RenMac Off-Script: Can't Spell Allbirds w/o AI · 42 min.RenMac unpacks a market at new highs despite slowing growth, softening real consumption, and rising real rates acting as a drag beneath the surface. The team debates AI-driven…
- RenMac Off-Script: Clarida Gives RenMac Clarity · 1 t. 2 min.Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a Warsh-led regime and why…
- RenMac Off-Script: Good Friday & Dark Crosses · 39 min.RenMac breaks down a noisy March payrolls report that’s sending the wrong signal to the Fed, why markets may be misreading a slowing nominal economy, and how rising real…
- RenMac Off-Script: Strait Talk* · 50 min.Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and why reestablishing control is…
- RenMac Off-Script: Fear Factor(s) · 42 min.RenMac breaks down how quadruple witching and gamma dynamics could amplify near-term volatility as markets reprice a fragile macro environment. The team unpacks an oil-driven…
- RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells* · 1 t. 4 min.Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and why a prolonged disruption could remove up to…
- RenMac Off-Script: Crude Awakening · 39 min.RenMac breaks down how the Iran conflict and rising oil prices are colliding with an already softening labor market and late-cycle market dynamics. The team discusses the…
- RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !? · 44 min.RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to carry investment. The team…
- RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns · 43 min.RenMac breaks down a market that’s still trending higher but losing momentum, as 2-year yields flirt with cycle lows and leadership rotates between cyclicals and defensives. The…
- RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation · 32 min.RenMac unpacks cooler inflation that keeps Fed cuts in play just as rising job anxiety and narrow hiring trends point to softer labor conditions beneath the surface. The team…
- RenMac Off-Script: Big Tech Faces Capex Conundrum · 56 min.CNBC’s Sara Eisen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to unpack why Big Tech’s AI spend is suddenly spooking markets, cracking momentum trades, and pressuring software stocks. The…
- RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands · 49 min.RenMac unpacks the market fallout from Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading Fed chair candidate, the risks building in parabolic trades like gold and crypto and why sentiment…
- RenMac Off-Script: Mysterious Market Reactions · 42 min.RenMac digs into the growing political stakes around the Fed chair decision, why global yields—especially in Japan—are reshaping risk appetite, and how improving breadth…
- RenMac Off-Script: Live From The Edge · 51 min.RenMac recaps key takeaways from the firm’s 2026 Investor Forum, where stronger near-term data clashes with persistent weakness in housing and labor. Dutta argues inflation…
- RenMac Off-Script: Big Oil: Pump for Trump · 50 min.RenMac digs into a complicated January jobs report that dampens near-term rate-cut expectations as Dutta warns that unemployment risks are rising beneath stable headlines, while…
- RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Hits the Slopes · 35 min.RenMac kicks off 2026 with a wide-ranging discussion on the political reality around affordability and inflation, asset allocation myths, and what to watch as ISM and employment…
- RenMac Off-Script: Ronaldo, Trade, Inflation & What Investors Missed in ’25. + What’s on Tap For ‘26 · 40 min.RenMac closes out 2025 by reflecting on the year’s biggest macro, market, and political surprises as the team looks ahead to early 2026. deGraaf explains why seasonality and…
- RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles · 49 min.RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be driving the next macro chapter…
- RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly* · 54 min.RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will determine whether the next cut is…
- RenMac Off-Script: Why The Maestro Matters · 44 min.RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing economy. The team unpacks the…
- RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair · 42 min.RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in…
