Open Weights vs Closed Labs

Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo for value in a still-expensive market — with Iran re-heating the oil tape, open-weights politics reshaping who captures AI rents, and a full-page scan of who benefits from cheaper tokens.
The Cashflow Memo
Key Takeaways
* Iran–US flare-up leaves Hunt more uncertain than any week since February, but base case stays oil in the $80–90 band (not $120–150); US pullback looks like the only workable option versus ground troops or deeper infrastructure strikes.
* Open-weights models favor hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, SpaceX) that already sunk CapEx in chips and avoid model-margin rent; Anthropic/OpenAI lobbying for restricted access is the opposite trade.
* Apple’s low CapEx and cash buy optionality, but Siri still needs a real model (open weights or Gemini) and the stock is hardware-defended; hosts note NVIDIA GPU purchases for Gemini after long Nvidia–Apple bad blood.
* Value hunt across the memo: most businesses get AI as a sustaining productivity boost; Uber is the standout disruption risk (Tesla/Waymo autonomy); oil E&P trade early-teens EV/FCF vs a normal 8–10x; midstream 6–8% yields with ~3–4% dividend growth are bond-like (~11%) vs the 15% double-in-five hurdle.
* Next week teed up: AI impact on healthcare (page 19 skipped) plus where value sits in Tesla and SpaceX after large drawdowns; Starlink V3 and robotaxi-as-base-station ideas pressure cable/wireless ROIC.
Show Notes
[00:00] Intro & Cash Flow Memo Download the memo at telltales.us; 30 minutes on energy, technology, and healthcare cash flows.
[00:00:20] Exhibits A–C: Iran, Gas, Deficit Iran–US ceasefire frays; Hunt sees pullback as the only workable path and keeps oil in an $80–90 investment band with more uncertainty than since February. Permian oil growth is pressuring 2027 gas futures under ~$3.50. Deficit path still points at healthcare as the only real spending lever.
[00:06:17] Open Weights vs Closed Labs Hyperscalers align against restricting open-weight models (no model margin to pay); Anthropic/OpenAI lobbied for gatekeeping. Apple’s low CapEx looks fine on hardware cash, but Siri still needs a model — and NVIDIA GPUs for Gemini show the hardware path.
[00:11:25] Memo Hunt: Compute Beneficiaries Uber/DoorDash/Airbnb/Five Below — most get sustaining AI productivity; Uber faces autonomy disruption from Tesla and Waymo. Industrials (copper, lithium, fertilizer) and logistics IT departments stand to gain; copper in racks may stay relevant longer as optical interconnects lag.
[00:16:43] Financials, Energy & Retail Multiples Banks as capital-light cash generators once regulatory risk is met; oil E&P early-teens EV/FCF vs normal 8–10x after the war bid; midstream yields as bond substitutes short of a 15% hurdle. Costco’s scale-economies-shared model at ~50× FCF; Walmart Labs already deep in AI merchandising; PayPal framed as a change-management opportunity.
[00:26:33] Cable, Wireless & Next Week Charter/Comcast trade like…