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An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies
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Episodi
I 50 episodi più recenti su 321
- Anthropic's 85% is really 42% · 35 minMike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: oil averaging $90 through a Hormuz stalemate, whether Jensen Huang survives the spy story, the…
- The Day After the Blue Wave: Oil, Deficits, Chips and Drugs · 37 minRecorded the day after the election, Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: what a blue wave means for oil, the deficit, data centers…
- Weekend Update - W2644 · 8 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2644 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-23 → 2026-10-30. Composite is rank-sum…
- Anthropic Burned Under $10B. Now It's Betting Hundreds of Billions. · 35 minMike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo, from $90 oil and a grinding 10-year to the long-awaited Anthropic S-1, with Montana joining on…
- Weekend Update - W2643 · 9 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2643 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-17 → 2026-10-23. Composite is rank-sum…
- Buy for the Data Centers, Get Space for Free · 36 minMike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: an oil strip pricing a long Iran stalemate, a $2 trillion deficit and a rising 10-year, Europe’s…
- Weekend Update - W2642 · 8 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2642 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-16. Composite is rank-sum…
- Data Centers Earn, Washington Doesn't · 32 minMike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: an oil strip pricing a long stalemate, a $2 trillion deficit and a grinding 10-year, what…
- Weekend Update - W2641 · 7 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2641 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-09. Composite is rank-sum…
- $1 a User vs. 15% · 32 minMike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: oil stuck in triple digits, a 10-year Treasury headed toward 6%, SpaceX’s $40 billion Nvidia…
- Weekend Update - W2640 · 9 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2640 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-09-25 → 2026-10-02. Composite is rank-sum…
- Three Times GDP · 34 minHunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo as Hormuz flows recover, the fiscal year closes near a $2 trillion deficit, and the 10-year pushes toward 6%. Then Hunt’s case that…
- Weekend Update - W2639 · 12 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Berkshire Gave Up the Quiet Exit Berkshire’s real commitment to Lennar this month was the paperwork, more than the two…
- The Radiologists Are Still Here · 34 minHunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo with WTI near $101, a $20 discount to next year’s strip, and the 10-year above 5%. Then the data against AI job doomers, and what it…
- Weekend Update - W2638 · 12 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Read the Vesting Schedule Amazon signed two documents with Generac on Tuesday. Everybody covered the smaller one. The…
- AI Is an Engineering Problem, Not an Extinction Event · 35 minHunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo with oil back near $100, the 10-year above 5%, and the AI labs talking about extinction. Plus notes from the All-In Summit and a…
- Weekend Update - W2637 · 13 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Biggest AI Builder Just Chose Dilution Four weeks ago the argument in this column was that the AI buildout had…
- $500,000 vs. $50,000: Montana's Cancer Treatment Loophole · 33 minHunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo across an escalating Iran-US oil standoff, the widening federal deficit, a wave of new AI agent products from xAI and Meta, and a…
- Weekend Update - W2636 · 13 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → ONEOK Bought a Ratio ONEOK announced a four-point-four-billion-dollar acquisition last weekend and raised nine billion…
- Moderna Only Owns Half of Its Own Cancer Vaccine · 31 min · Stagione 26 Episodio 36Hunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo across energy, the federal balance sheet, and healthcare, joined by Montana in San Diego for a deep session on cancer vaccines and…
- Weekend Update - W2635 · 14 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Bid Was the Business PayPal spent the summer being priced by a buyer rather than by a business, and on Friday it…
- "I Don't See How An Investor Can Not Own SpaceX" · 32 minHunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo: oil and gas exhibits, the deficit math nobody wants to do, the Moderna/Merck cancer-vaccine economics, and the SpaceX position Hunt…
- Weekend Update - W2634 · 14 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Twelve Times Free Cash Flow Bought One Company and Trapped Another Two of our companies signed deals this week, and the…
- This Time, the Hare Beat the Tortoise · 33 minHunt, Mike, and Jason go more than half healthcare this week: Moderna’s Merck-partnered mRNA cancer vaccine cleared phase 3 in melanoma and the stock doubled. Plus Hormuz at a…
- Weekend Update - W2633 · 14 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The AI Buildout Just Became a Credit Trade Broadcom put up the best AI guidance in the semiconductor industry and lost…
- Sold Out Through 2028 · 31 minHunt, Jason, and Mike walk the Cash Flow Memo through $90 oil that will not change oil-patch spending, a compute market sold out through 2028, and a healthcare desk that still…
- Weekend Update - W2632 · 14 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → A note from the desk: this week’s update is landing a few days late. We hit a technical problem over the weekend that…
- 900 Gigawatts, 90 Gigawatts of Grid · 29 minHunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo through an oil tape driven by Hormuz headlines, a power grid that has started saying no to data centers, and the valuation question…
- Weekend Update - W2631 · 14 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Microsoft Bought Twenty Years of Power. The Market Graded the Buyer. The AI build spent this week being graded on the…
- Open Weights vs Closed Labs · 31 minHunt, Mike, and Jason walk the Cash Flow Memo for value in a still-expensive market — with Iran re-heating the oil tape, open-weights politics reshaping who captures AI rents…
- Weekend Update - W2630 · 14 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → GE Vernova Is Already Selling 2031. The Scarcity Was Manufactured Twenty Years Ago. Every company in this week’s news…
- Where the Value's Hiding in an Expensive Market · 35 minHunt, Jason, and Mike walk the full 20-page Cash Flow Memo, from a shut shipping channel in the Strait of Hormuz to a tiny ophthalmology compounder, hunting for value in an…
- Weekend Update - W2629 · 12 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Wall Street Called PayPal Dead Money for Two Years. This Week, Private Capital Sent a Term Sheet. Two markets looked at…
- Value Hiding in Plain Sight · 28 minHormuz risk pushes Hunt’s oil call toward $80 (not $90–100), the team hunts for value on a high market — and lands on hyperscaler infrastructure over AI models — while healthcare…
- Weekend Update - W2628 · 13 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Micron and Intel Poured the Same Concrete This Week. The Market Paid One and Punished the Other. Micron and Intel spent…
- The Midyear Predictions Scorecard · 31 minOil holds steady despite Hormuz drone strikes, SK Hynix tests a $25B US listing, and the team runs its mid-year predictions scorecard across energy, tech, and healthcare —…
- Weekend Update - W2627 · 13 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Microsoft Is Funding the Next AI Layer With the Last One Enterprise AI stopped being a story about models this week and…
- Regulatory Capture Comes for the Labs · 32 minMike, Hunt, and Jason run the exhibits fast, then dig into the AI buildout math that keeps getting worse, Oracle’s brutal week, and a healthcare block anchored by Lilly’s 340B…
- Weekend Update - W2626 · 12 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Week Memory Stopped Being a Commodity For forty years, memory was the worst business in technology. Brutally…
- Who Owns Your Data Now · 34 minMike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace dig into the looming Treasury market stress, proprietary-data risk in the age of frontier AI models, and a Medicare for All…
- Weekend Update - W2625 · 13 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Three Bottlenecks, One Multiple, and Only One Monopoly The AI argument flipped sides this week. For two years the only…
- The End of the Subsidized-Token Era · 36 minAll three hosts in one room: a macro tour through oil, gas and a new Fed chair, then a deep dive on NVIDIA at $5 trillion, the software stack’s capex problem, and the Anthropic…
- The One Week We Were All in the Same Room · 1 minFor the first time in four years, there’s no new Telltales episode this week. The one week all three of us were finally in the same city — Hunt, Jason, and Mike, in one room in…
- Weekend Update - W2624 · 11 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Good News, Sold: The AI Buildout’s First Bill Came Due Every capital cycle has the same tell. It is not the day the…
- Data Centers in Space: How SpaceX Justifies $2 Trillion · 28 minHunt, Jason, and Mike work through an oil market frozen by the US-Iran standoff, then spend the back half stress-testing SpaceX’s ~$2 trillion valuation against Tesla’s — landing…
- Weekend Update - W2623 · 12 min▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → Even the Cash Machines Are Borrowing Now The story this week was not that the AI build is expensive. Everyone knew that…
- The Greatest Insurance Business Ever Built, and Why It's Bankrupting Us · 36 minA wide-angle look at the three forces colliding in the market: oil supply through a contested Strait of Hormuz, the AI capex boom propping up the economy, and a US healthcare…
- Weekend Update - W2622 · 10 minThe Trillion-Dollar Bet That the Cycle Is Dead The market just handed a memory company a trillion-dollar valuation at roughly a hundred times trailing free cash flow, on a yield…
- How Do You Get to $2 Trillion? · 34 minHunt, Jason, and Mike break down the freshly filed SpaceX S-1 and ask the only question that matters: how do you justify a $2 trillion valuation on a company with almost no free…
- Weekend Update - W2621 · 13 minThe Cashflow Memo Capital Structure Week Nvidia confirmed the demand picture. Three companies restructured this week to monetize it. The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and…
